Tit for Tat is not a winning foreign policy strategy

The threat this week of a real war with Iran should be a wake up call for all Americans.  A strategy of tit for tat in international affairs is a surefire way to wind up with a shooting war that no one appears to want.

President Donald Trump was right to pull the plug on a proposed military strike in response to Iran’s taking down a US drone.  The Iranians claim the drone strayed into their airspace, while the US contends it was in international waters.  No one denies it was keeping an eye on the possible activities of Iranian military forces.

The incident reflects the dangers of a reactive approach to foreign policy.  Actions are produced in an almost ad hoc manner in response to the latest unfriendly act of our perceived enemy. Usually, such actions exacerbate the conflict. Rarely do they allow for a diplomatic resolution.

Trump’s approach to the conduct of foreign relations is not unique in American history.  It has been pursued all too often by recent US administrations, Democrat as well as Republican. 

A sound foreign policy strategy needs to be based on a clear understanding of the relationship between the US and the country whose actions we are seeking to influence. The history of that relationship impacts heavily options going forward.  Also, the US should be sensitive to the impact our actions can have on third parties as well as on other priorities in our national interest.

Foreign policy decisions do not take place in a vacuum.

In the case of Iran, there has been a long and contentious relationship between Iran and the West. The British began exploiting Iran oil riches in the early 20^th century. Despite the glaring inequity of the arrangements, Iran remained firmly in the Allies camp during World War II. The Big Three, Stalin, Churchill and FDR, held a major conference in Tehran in 1943.

Although Iranian nationalism became more assertive in the aftermath of the war, fear of potential Soviet influence led the British and the US to continue support for the Shah as Iran’s leader.  In 1953, the two Western powers engineered removal of the popularly elected Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosadegh.  He had nationalized Iran’s oil industry

The coup restored the Shah’s control but left him dependent on Western support and distrusted broadly among Iranians of all political stripes. The cauldron finally boiled over in 1979 when Iranian revolutionary forces sent the Shah into exile and the clerics took over.  When President Jimmy Carter allowed the Shah to receive cancer treatment in New York, Iranian students took over the US embassy in Tehran and held the American staff there hostage for 444 days.

US-Iranian relations have been virulent ever since. The military skirmishes between the two countries have been few and with minimal casualties, but gestures towards some sort of reconciliation have always run into some obstacle.

The latest breakup, Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), is exasperating. Negotiated by the Obama administration with the support of five other major countries, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, the agreement was endorsed by the UN Security Council as well. Granted, the deal includes nothing to restrain Iran’s meddling in the internal affairs of some of its neighbors, nor to end Iran’s alleged support of terrorist groups. Restraining Iran’s nuclear weapons development, however, is an important step in restoring some level of confidence and trust among the signatories. Hopefully, that might allow for the resolution of other differences.

Trump’s decision to impose “maximum pressure” on Iran through more aggressive sanctions is not likely to succeed.  Iran is a nation of 80 million people whose cultural and political heritage reaches back to the 5^th century B.C. Its collective memory of Western exploitation is firmly intact.

Iran’s oil resources are significant. US efforts to block third parties from seeking access to those resources will try our relations with several key countries including China, India, South Korea and Japan. Iran is also strategically located, sharing borders with Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey and Iraq, all countries of importance to the US. Iran has already proven it can withstand a serious military challenge, successfully surviving an eight-year war with US-back Iraq in the 1980s.

A number of undesirable outcomes are possible.

Iran will find support in avoiding US sanctions among third parties who see an advantage in resisting US demands. This could give the Iranians cover for continuing to develop the necessary component for nuclear weapons. Iran may also step up its support of militant proxies in the Middle East. 

North Korea will become even more reluctant to give up its nuclear weapons since the US cannot be trusted to honor its commitments. This lack of trustworthiness is also likely to influence China’s willingness to negotiate economic agreements with the US or to support the US in trying to rein in Kim Jong un. Finally, our long term alliances with Europe may also suffer as the result of our perfidy.

 The US cannot afford to risk becoming isolated on the world stage. Both our economic and our military strength require allies. The US needs to rejoin JCPOA and to implement it as expected. Going it alone and ignoring history will not produce a winning foreign policy strategy.